Birth of an Age Read online

  “Yes, Mr. Ambassador,” Dr. Johnson answered. Alsie Johnson dealt with politicians almost every day. He well knew that while they are among the most long-winded of the human species, they often are among the first to insist that others come to the point.

  “What will this involve?” Kruszkegin followed up.

  “Because of the risk involved, we feel that redundancy, even overkill, is not only justified, but crucial,” Johnson answered.

  “I don’t think anyone on the planet would disagree with you on that,” one of the alternates on the Council interjected.

  “There’s certainly no shortage of nuclear devices available for the task,” Johnson continued. “Unfortunately, the inventories of launch vehicles capable of reaching the target and delivering a warhead are not nearly so abundant. In order to break free of the Earth’s gravity and deliver the warheads while the third asteroid is still at a safe distance from the Earth, the launch vehicles must be capable of reaching escape velocity.

  “Ideally, with enough warning, we could detonate a series of explosions just ahead of the asteroid in order to slow its speed or slightly alter its course. With sufficient time, altering its course even one degree, or its speed by an inch per second, would be sufficient to avert a collision. Unfortunately, at this point we have neither the time nor resources to attempt this. The only option certain to ensure the safety of the Earth is to completely destroy the asteroid at the earliest possible moment.” Dr. Johnson nodded to Dr. James Stewart of the Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, California, to continue the briefing. Dr. Stewart nodded in turn to the staffer who was operating the display screens.

  As the simulation began, Dr. Stewart narrated and explained the action. “When the asteroid is hit by our missiles, the object’s mass will be sent flying out in all directions, including some pieces that will likely continue toward the Earth. If any of the pieces are very large,” Dr. Stewart continued, “they could still pose a threat. Our goal, then, must be to pulverize it. Our estimates, which are still being refined, are that this will require placement of forty warheads with an average yield of twenty megatons each over the entire Earthward face. All of the warheads must reach their target and be detonated simultaneously, an instant before impact. It’s a mission uniquely suited to the capabilities of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs. This, however, further reduces our inventory of acceptable launch vehicles. Specifically, those launch vehicles capable of reaching the target and delivering MIRVs are limited to the U.S. Minuteman III and the Soviet-built SS-11 Sego. These are both relatively old systems, however, and most have been converted to heavy lift vehicles for orbital launches or have been destroyed to comply with treaties. Additionally, both the Minuteman III and the Sego will require considerable modification for this mission.

  “Our plan at this point is to send three waves of missiles so that, should the first volley fail to completely destroy the asteroid, a second and third line of defense will stand ready to finish the job.” As the simulation showed second and third waves of missiles destroying or diverting the few remaining large pieces of asteroid, Dr. Stewart concluded by noting that all of the technology employed was proven and that those involved were certain of the plan’s feasibility.

  As Dr. Stewart finished, Dr. John Jefferson of Oak Ridge National Laboratory began. “There is a second reason that makes early destruction imperative,” Jefferson explained. “The debris that results from the explosion will initially be highly radioactive.” At this revelation a look of disquiet swept over the faces of those in the room as they realized the obvious — of course, after a nuclear explosion, the debris would be radioactive. “Like fallout from any nuclear explosion,” Jefferson continued, “the level of radiation will drop quickly with time. The more time between the destruction of the asteroid and the arrival of the debris, the less radioactive it will be.”

  “How soon must we launch the missiles to keep the radiation at safe levels?” Ambassador Ngordon interrupted.

  “Without knowing the exact makeup of the asteroid or of the particles that will reach the Earth,” Dr. Jefferson responded, “it’s impossible to provide a definitive answer to that question. However, based on Dr. Hall’s estimates of the asteroid’s content, we believe it must be destroyed at least fourteen days before the remaining particles reach Earth. Much less than that and the effects of the radiation from prolonged contact could be serious, possibly fatal. This estimate assumes that it will take an additional two days before substantial amounts of the dust begin to sift through the atmosphere.”

  “How soon must we launch?” asked Ngordon.

  “We hope to launch in nine days, on the twenty-sixth, Mr. Ambassador,” Dr. Johnson answered. “If we can launch by that date, the missiles will reach the asteroid thirty-four days later on July 31, at a point 23 million miles from the Earth. This will allow fifteen days before the debris reaches Earth, one day more than the minimum required.”

  “Can it be done?” Ngordon asked directly.

  “Yes, sir. We believe it can. But we’ll need the full support of the UN and especially of those nations who possess the required launch vehicles.”

  “Mr. President,” said Ambassador Jackson Clark of the United States. “You can count on the full support of the American government and people in this effort. I know I speak for my president in saying we will provide as many of the Minutemen missiles as are available. And I’m certain that America’s scientists and engineers will work around the clock to provide whatever technical support, equipment, and manpower are required.”

  Kruszkegin made a similar offer for the nations that once made up the Soviet Union. One of the ironies of the nuclear devastation that befell Russia as a result of its attack on the Middle East was that many hundreds of its long-range missiles that hadn’t been launched came through the devastation unscarred, protected in their nuclear-hardened silos.

  When that was settled, Ambassador Clark asked Dr. Johnson. “What about our strategic defenses? Can they be used against this thing?”

  “No, sir,” Dr. Johnson replied. “The directed energy weapons – the various lasers and particle beams – have sufficient range to reach the target, but even the combined energy of all such weapons in the inventory would have no significant effect on a body of this mass. Their energy sources were engineered to provide short directed bursts, not a sustained assault on a large target. As for the kinetic energy weapons, they lack both sufficient range and destructive power.”

  Ambassador Clark nodded acceptance.

  The meeting continued for a while longer, and when it seemed that all matters had been resolved as best they could be, Christopher, who had been silent to this point, raised another question to Dr. Johnson. “I’m concerned about the other two asteroids,” Christopher said. “Are you certain they pose no threat?”

  “Yes, sir,” Johnson answered. “As indicated in the simulation, the first two asteroids will come close — closer than any large asteroid in recorded history — but they pose no threat.”

  “Is there any possibility that your calculations could be in error? It seems to me we’re cutting this very close.”

  “Sir, I appreciate your concern, but the calculations have been run independently by fourteen different observatories and universities. They’ve been checked, double-checked and triple-checked. In no case was the variance of the findings greater than plus or minus one hundred kilometers.”

  Christopher sighed and lightly tapped his pen on the table in front of him, apparently looking for another approach that might yield the answer he wanted. “But what about farther down the road? From what you’ve said, the asteroids’ new orbits will make them cross the Earth’s path on a regular basis. Is there a possibility that they’ll pose a threat later on? Wouldn’t it be better to destroy them now?”

  “What we need to remember, Mr. Ambassador,” Dr. Johnson answered, “is that the Earth’s orbit includes a tremendous amount of space. Just because an asteroid cross
es, it doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s a threat. There are thousands of asteroids that cross the Earth’s orbit; by plotting their orbits we can determine if any of these will threaten the Earth any time in the next several million years. Based on these projections, we’ve concluded that after this pass, neither of the first two asteroids will come within a million miles of Earth for another three and a half million years.”

  Christopher seemed desperate to get a different answer. Decker wasn’t sure whether it was a hopeless cause or not. Milner and Christopher had both insisted that, at least for the present, the destruction foretold by John and Cohen shouldn’t be stopped. It hadn’t set well with Decker, but he was ill-equipped to argue points of prophecy and the destiny of mankind with the likes of Milner and Christopher. And yet, as Decker watched and listened, it seemed clear that what Christopher had in mind was to find some reason, any reason, to destroy the first two asteroids before they could reach the Earth. Science said that asteroids 2031 KD and 2031 KE posed no threat and it would have been ridiculous for Christopher to argue that the UN destroy them based simply on what two religious madmen said. But John and Cohen had prophesied tremendous destruction, and if the powers they possessed were great enough to hurl asteroids at the Earth from deep in space, it was unlikely that they would now miss their target, no matter what the simulations indicated. Christopher himself had said that John and Cohen could not, indeed, should not be stopped until much of the destruction they prophesied had run its course. Surely Christopher, more than anyone, realized that his attempts were in vain. That Christopher would try so hard even though he was sure the effort was futile only made Decker admire him more.

  “What about using the first two asteroids to test the methodology that you plan for the third asteroid?” Christopher persisted. “Doesn’t it make sense to . . . well . . . to do a practice run by attempting to destroy the first two asteroids?” The idea made a lot of sense to the other members of the Security Council, and many nodded in agreement. Decker held his breath. Was it possible that sheer reason could overcome John and Cohen’s dark intent?

  “Mr. Ambassador,” Dr. Johnson answered, “while the logic behind your suggestion is sound, there are three reasons why what you propose cannot be done. First, if we were to fire on one of the first two asteroids, and our calculations were even slightly in error, then instead of destroying the target, we might alter its course and risk hurling it directly toward Earth. Second, if we successfully destroy 2031 KD or 2031 KE then, as indicated in the simulation of the destruction of the third asteroid, pieces would be sent out in all directions. Even if we launch nine days from now, the missiles wouldn’t reach the asteroids until they were only two and a half days from the Earth. The debris reaching Earth from the explosion would still be highly radioactive; the number of deaths could be in the thousands. And, finally there is the problem of resources. Every resource available, including time, must be brought to bear on 2031 KF. That’s where the threat lies.”

  The logic was indisputable; it would do no good to argue further. Science said that the first two asteroids posed no threat and there would be no convincing anyone to the contrary.

  Chapter 4

  Eve of Destruction

  Fifteen days later

  Sacramento Peak Observatory, New Mexico

  Mary Ludford looked in the bathroom mirror to check her appearance. Her eyes were red, but that could easily be attributed to lost sleep; the past two weeks had been punctuated by early mornings and late nights. Though she questioned her qualifications to be the recipient of so much attention, since the release of the news of the approaching asteroids the media had made her an international heroine, and her lack of adequate rest was simply the price the world demanded of its luminaries. Now it would serve as a convenient excuse. Exhaustion was certainly an easier explanation than admitting that she had been crying.

  Despite the distinctly non-heroic nature of her discovery, it was, after all, Mary who had first spotted the oncoming asteroids and had thereby given the world the time needed to prepare a defense. Besides, it was in the very nature of the media to want to put a human face on such a complex issue. So there was Mary Ludford on the news/talk shows; on numerous media specials about the asteroids; and at center stage, offering her commentary as the missiles were successfully launched to destroy the third giant asteroid, 2031 KF. The launches had gone flawlessly and on schedule. Each missile was fired in a precisely timed sequence and then, after orbiting the Earth, sped on its way toward the threatening mass 74 million miles away. Success seemed certain, and so, after they questioned the experts and interviewed the “man in the street” and aired the concerns and confusion of the world, the media again turned its attention to Mary Ludford.

  With the destruction of the third asteroid all but a fait accompli, all of the acclaim should have provided Mary with a time of excitement and diversion, an enchanted moment of posh hotels and expensive restaurants, of meeting the famous and powerful. But amidst her exhaustion one troubling thought had haunted her from the first time the spotlight was cast her way. What would happen if her father saw her on television? Would he try to call her? At first she was afraid that he would call. If he did, what would she say? Could she even talk to him with all the anger she harbored toward him for abandoning her and her mother? Later she determined that if he did call, she would tell him off and hang up on him. In her mind, she rehearsed what she would say. And yet later she paced anxiously, fearing that he would not call. If he did, she thought, abandoning her previous plan, maybe they could talk. Maybe he had an explanation for why he left. It couldn’t have been a good reason, but it might at least have been understandable, one that she could bring herself to forgive.

  But now she knew that she had only been fooling herself. It had been two weeks since her first major interview, and her father hadn’t tried to contact her. He couldn’t have missed seeing her on television or in the magazines or newspapers or Internet. Now here she was making a fool of herself, wasting tears on someone who apparently didn’t care whether she even existed. Once again she concluded that if he did call, she would hang up on him. It didn’t even occur to her that in her resolve to stop thinking of him, she was restarting the cycle where she had begun it. In truth, she couldn’t give up hope.

  Dunn Solar Telescope, Sacramento Peak Observatory

  Satisfied that she was as presentable as possible and with a self-deceived determination not to spend any more time agonizing about her father, Mary Ludford left the restroom to rejoin the world. She walked slowly northwest along the road, past reporters’ vans, and then made her way along the wooded path toward the Hilltop Dome. Those who lived and worked at the observatory had gotten used to the thin air, but for those unaccustomed, Sacramento Peak’s altitude of 9,700 feet above sea level didn’t lend itself to brisk walks. Behind her stood the rather out-of-place looking Grain Bin Dome, Sacramento Peak’s first observatory, so-called because it had been constructed from an agricultural storage shed. Farther back stood the John W. Evans Solar Facility, a much more traditional-looking building, which ordinarily was involved in the research of the sun’s photosphere, chromosphere, and corona. To her left, Sacramento Peak’s most distinguishable feature, the pearl-white Dunn Solar Telescope facility, soared upward 130 feet into the night sky. Inside the facility, the telescope extended down into the mountain through an open shaft for an additional 220 feet. It was an amazing piece of equipment, but was highly specialized for use in solar observations and hence wouldn’t be useful for tracking and observing asteroids. It alone among Sacramento Peak’s four observatories would be unattended tonight.

  Sacramento Peak, which for seventy years had functioned almost exclusively as a solar observatory, wasn’t the only facility that would divert its attentions from its normal pursuits. More than a hundred observatories around the world were participating, many of which specialized in other fields of astronomy and had never been involved in the study of asteroids.

  Despite
the thin air, Mary decided to walk beyond the Hilltop Dome to the scenic overlook halfway between the dome and the Dunn Solar Telescope. The night was clear and she could see for miles across the white gypsum sands of the Tularosa Basin to the San Andres and Organ Mountains to the southwest. The lights of El Paso, Texas, glowed in the distance to the south. Turning her eyes toward the northern sky, she paused to look at the two objects that had pulled her out of her quiet study of receding galaxies. Both asteroids had been visible to the naked eye for the last two nights, but now they were unmistakable in the northern sky, shining brightly just above the horizon and nearly due north. In their current positions, the second and smaller asteroid (2031 KE) was actually higher in the northern sky than the first (2031 KD). As the Earth continued its orbit, however, 2031 KE would appear to drop below the first, and three hours after 2031 KD streaked across the skies of the western hemisphere, 2031 KE would drop below the horizon and traverse its path through the heavens of the eastern half of the world.

  Hilltop Dome Facility, Sacramento Peak

  Mary walked back to the Hilltop Dome and went in. As she entered the facility she looked at the large wall monitor, which showed a telescopic view of the asteroids. In addition to performing numerous tests, surveys, and studies, the observatories along the paths of the asteroids acted as tracking stations, following the asteroids’ approach and providing a feed to the other observatories and media around the world.

  Television and Internet coverage included an uninterrupted picture of the approach. Until recently, it had been a rather unimpressive scene, appearing as no more than two tiny points of light on an otherwise blank screen. What made it almost addictive to watch were the two digital counters as they clicked off the distance between each asteroid and the Earth. Sixty-five thousand miles per hour naturally seemed fast to most viewers, but even seasoned experts were heard to exclaim when they first witnessed the counters clicking off the miles at a rate of eighteen per second.